Glenboden M & A Originations
ALL "ALCOHOL BEVERAGES" LEADS
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Who is Stock Spirits trying to acquire in central Europe ? - We present the case for Zwack Unicum being a priority acquisition target for Stock Spirits in CEE, even though Hungary is not the largest market in that region. Read More
Potential acquirors of Altia Corp in privatisation tender - We believe that the buyer is unlikely to be a global spirits & wine player; rather a Nordic -focused consumer brands group, or a private equity firm Read More
Shareholders should grasp the opportunity to sell TWE to KKR (pt. 2) - With a revised bid now valuing the company at x14 EBITDA, the case for cashing in is very compelling. But why the competing bid from another private equity group ? Read More
What's on the M&A cards for San Miguel Brewery ? - surely the bidder in question is Kirin Holdings. We examine the potential valuation of that deal, and the possible add-on consolidation of Read More
Shareholders should grasp the opportunity to sell TWE to KKR (pt. 1) - the future of the premium estates- based wine business model is questionable; TWE's shareholders should grasp the opportunity to exit Read More
Brick Brewing is better left off the craft beer M&A radar - a player like Brick Brewing demonstrates that there's a key difference between M&A -good craft, and M&A -doubtful regional, in the beer industry Read More
Next M&A cycle gets lift from Jim Beam acquisition - transaction underlines that the next decade -cycle in M&A valuations is underway in FMCG, with valuations north of x20 EBITDA. The difference in the 2010s could be that Read More
Assessment of Van Pur as a divestment candidate in Poland - the transaction should attract the interest of 'second-tier' international beer groups. But how valuable is Van Pur, and why are the owners selling ? Read More
'Ciechan' the no.1 craft beer candidate in Poland - we tip Ciechan as the craft segment's stand-out brand in that country, with the potential to attract acquisition interest from Read More
Is SABMiller overpaying for Kingway breweries in China ? - When we last reviewed this upcoming deal a year ago, we predicted a valuation for Kingway of only US$ 250 mln. Since then, sales and profitability have gone south, yet the valuation is vastly north Read More
Will Heineken or Kirin win race to strong no.2 in Brazil brewing ? - Brazil looks ripe for a beer consolidation, to create a stronger no.2 behind AmBev. The key could be in deal structuring and Read More
Will the major brewers acquire more craft regional brewers ? - We believe craft regional success is driven by that segment being a conduit for the majors to both growth and premiumisation, and see more M&A Read More
Molson Coors enters lion's den with StarBev buy - the growth market rationale is understandable, but is Molson Coors buying StarBev on the basis of maxed-out financials, and stirring up a competitive Read More
Would sale of Sobieski raise enough to save Belvedere ? - the 'Sobieski' vodka brand is already at the infomemo and NDA stage, but the proceeds would not make a big enough dent in Belvedere's Read More
Kingway Brewery likely to be sold to SABMiller - Although Kingway has relatively low margins by brewing standards, the timing is good given the group's strong growth trajectory in Read More
Does CEDC have a better alternative to Russian Standard ? - A strategic alliance will be problematic between such diverse groups, but how attractive are CEDC's 'several' alternatives ? Read More
Implications of strategic alliance between SABMiller and Anadolu Efes - SABMiller has surged back in front in M&A, through acquiring Foster's and now this alliance with Efes. We examine how this deal affects Read More
Is Belvedere about to undergo a debt for equity swap ? - Does the solution for Belvedere lie in brand sales, or rather a debt for equity swap and merger with its creditor and competitor Read More
The M&A future for a de-leveraging Diageo - Analysts predict that Diageo is preparing itself for a major acquisition in 2011. We identify both big and small deal targets Read More
Constellation vulnerable if ABI acquires Grupo Modelo - speculation about Anheuser-Busch InBev acquiring Mexico's Grupo Modelo. We look at the consequences for Constellation Brands in the US Read More
Is Royal Unibrew leaning towards a private equity buy-out ? - questions about its regional brand strategy, and assess the group's appeal as an acquisition target, leaning towards private equity firms like Read More
Constellation sells another chunk of itself to reduce debt - Constellation Brands has sold another asset, constituting 30% of total sales, cheaply. We ask whether the group's poor M&A history is to blame for Read More
Could Brown-Forman merge with a pure-play Jim Beam ? - quick to tip Diageo and Pernod Ricard as the buyers for the to-be liberated Beam Global. We ask whether a merger with Brown-Forman could Read More
How much would Diageo have to pay for Moet Hennessy ? - given the success of LVMH in de-leveraging, the 'trophy' price that Diageo would have to pay appears to be Read More
Troubled Belvedere resorts to alternative investment fund - The success of the jewel in its portfolio, 'Sobieski', looks like too Read More
Further acquisition options for Campari - Campari's specialises in buying brands that have a low profile, or are the subject of forced sales, at valuations almost invariably below Read More
M&A options for SABMiller in Belarus and Ukraine - whether SABMiller will have any competition to buy Krinitsa, and at an alternative acquisition that would also transform its business in neighbouring Ukraine Read More
Sapporo's US brand target could be 'Samuel Adams' - market share in the US may be only 0,9%, but with a cash injection for a minority stake, Asian -style, that icon of the craft beer movement could fly Read More
Belvedere can't continue alone and should join a bigger group - Belvedere should 'grab victory from the jaws of defeat', by pegging its 'Sobieski' vodka brand to a bigger group. There are a number of potential acquirers. Read More
C&C a pure-play cider & beer candidate after spirits disposal - C&C is now a mid -sized LAD specialist, providing a bolt -on acquisition opportunity for majors especially Read More
Options for SABMiller after Heineken's purchase of FEMSA - SABMiller has fallen way behind its rivals, Inbev and Heineken, in the global beer consolidation race. It's urgent for SAB to acquire Read More
SABMiller a surer bidder for Mexico's FEMSA than Heineken - We believe that the timing isn't right for Heineken, and that both strategically and financially SABMiller is better placed to acquire this business. Read More
Opportunities after wholesale acquisition of InBev CE by private equity - Brewing is not a sector where private equity thrives, we think CVC will disaggregate the portfolio and sell the country units to other beer groups Read More
Boston Beer as next globalisation of ambassador brand ? - brands that represent a beer ethnicity, that a major buyer can commercialise globally. An example was SABMiller's purchase of Grolsch; we think Boston Beer also fits that space Read More
Spirits consolidation trajectory - Fortune should acquire Brown-Forman - Given the contrasting fortunes of Jim Beam and Brown-Forman, we predict a merger of the two US champions, to consolidate spirits to the same level as tobacco and beer. Read More
Grove Mill a pearl of a New Zealand wine brand for a global portfolio - Grove Hill has a great story and strong fundamentals but, given the challenges of managing vinyards, it could reach its full potential only within a global wine and spirits group. Read More
Potential buyers for AB Inbev's beer assets in CEE region - AB InBev to reach its target of S$ 7 bln from divestments, if it sells its CEE businesses, which are only 10% of total sales, but include leading brands in several markets, which should be attractive to other majors. Read More
Kirin acquisition of Lion Nathan confirms valuation benchmark in brewing - This deal provides an important valuation benchmark, for beer assets that have Lion Nathan’s profile and market position. Read More
Labour troubles at Oriental Brewery create opportunity for private equity buyers - There’s been confusion or misinformation about this deal. InBev is only selling a minority stake, since it wants to retain its no.2 market position in the big and profitable South Korean market. Read More
Turkish beer group Efes over-reaching itself in promising Eurasian markets - Iin spite of management talk of more acquisitions, there’s a limit to the extent that Efes can continue to milk its near-monopoly in Turkey to fund its overseas ventures. Read More
Potential acquirors of strategic stake in India’s United Spirits - Diageo so far is tipped as favourite to win the tender, but the other interested parties are likely to also be serious ones. Valuation may be key. Read More
Japanese beer giants’ acquisition race heats up in spite of global slowdown - the big three Japanese beer groups are having an acquisition binge in Asia and Oceania. We summarise the deals, both done and pipeline. Read More
New targets for Asahi’s acquisitions surge in beverages in Asia - Asahi will face competition for beer acquisitions in populous geographies with high consumption growth rates. We look at specific acquisition targets. Read More
Staged sale of spirits portfolio is the key to survival for Constellation Brands - This latest divestment is a case of too little, wrong place; let’s not forget that spirits contribute only 10% of CB’s total revenues. Read More
Bigger owners needed for C&C’s attractive cider and whiskey assets - Glenboden suggested that C&C was ripe for a takeover and split up. Significant interest in Tullamore Dew whiskey could emerge from a number of global majors Read More
Constellation Brands more vulnerable after poor sales performance - We believe the group won’t make it, because of the de-premiumisation pressures on its branded wine portfolio. Expect a public -to –private acquisition of CB going into 2009. Read More
Acquisition options in super-premium spirits for a resilient LVMH - LVMH’s strong balance sheet and resilient operating performance, can expect further super-premium drinks acquisitions next year. We look at candidates in the spirits category. Read More
Improved performance points to Blavod as the next niche vodka acquisition candidate - The major players have been picking up new frontier brands like Blavod, in recent years, with a view to nurturing them into the Smirnoffs of the future. Read More
Belvedere spirits group’s best rescue option could be acquisition by Bacardi - The timing is still favourable for the group to be sold outright. Valuations for premium spirits brands are still high, which might not be the case if the consumer trades down in 2009. Read More
CCU of Chile appears as a full –range beverages acquisition candidate - CCU is an attractive candidate in the full -range beverages space, and a valid test case for a more global diversification deal. Heineken is best placed to acquire CCU, but Coca-Cola has momentum behind diversifying into Read More
CEDC’s status grows from acquisition candidate to takeover target after third deal in Russia - Having made three acquisitions in Russia, CEDC has grown its turnover by nearly 50% in total. We therefore upgrade CEDC to the class of ‘takeover targets’. Read More
Ireland's C&C looking vulnerable but has attractive cider and whiskey assets - The group is ripe for a takeover, and for the splitting up of its cider and whiskey businesses. The most likely acquirer for the former is a brewer with a UK focus; for the latter, a number of global spirits players migh Read More
More signs that Efes is ripening as global beer consolidation target - It looks like SABMiller might lose this prize to Heineken, who’s got its foot into the Efes door through a clever JV structure in some of EBG’s key markets. Read More
Five more acquisition candidates in the beer industry - Maybe it’s the summer weather, but a whole crop of acquisition candidates in brewing have appeared on the Glenboden radar screen. Read More
If Stolichnaya's for sale then Bacardi heads the buyers' list - There’s still acquisition momentum in at least one of the runners-up in the Absolut tender, namely Bacardi. Read More
Eastern Europe as acquisition priority for SABMiller and Heineken - Seen alongside SABMiller’s acquisition of Sarmat in Ukraine two weeks earlier, it’s clear that eastern Europe is a ripe hunting ground for big brewers; more acquisitions are likely to follow. Read More
Secondary M&A moves by Heineken in the wake of S&N deal - It’s an obvious acquisition, to improve Heineken’s net debt ratio in this troubled credit environmen. We also think it presages a few significant sales by the group in other geographies; predictions include the Czech Read More
Potential secondary M&A moves after Pernod acquisition of Absolut - Pernod has already announced some brand divestments and buyers include Campari; Bacardi as a loser in the bid could try to keep momentum by making an acquisition elsewhere (e.g. CEDC); Fortune Brands is now looking quite Read More
Heineken remains weak no. 3 in Czech market after latest acquisition - Heineken’s climb in the Czech beer market has been slow and painful. Maybe the group will sell out eventually ? Read More
CEDC ripening for sale after finally acquiring Russian platform - The peak time for the shareholders to secure a buyer for CEDC, amongst the spirits majors, is now, with the group having secured a crucial expansion platform in Russia by closing the deal. Read More
CEDC’s second acquisition option in Russia comes into view - it might be that CEDC will one day finalise the acquisition of Parliament; however this deal with Whitehall suggests they are wisely prioritizing distribution after all. Read More
Constellation Brands looking more vulnerable after sale of 'de-premiumised' wine brands - This deal confirms Glenboden’s generally negative assessment of CB’s M&A activity. It also raises the question of whether premium wine warrants such valuation premia; we think it doesn't. Read More
Efes ripening as the next global beer consolidation candidate - Efes is ripe for sale, given a slow-down or even reversal of its acquisition run, as well as financing constraints. It may have reached the limit on what it can do by itself. Read More
Carlsberg and Heineken succeed in acquiring S&N with a revised valuation that’s still cheap - In looking for a comparable transaction, one should find the most applicable deals, even if that means choosing just one deal, rather than take the average of a range of deals. Read More
CEDC continues its march to global vodka status after letter of intent in Russia - CEDC is well on the way to being one of the biggest vodka players in the world; a major step will be to finalise this deal in Russia, or another one managed in parallel with Whitehall in that country. Read More
SAB acquisition of Grolsch underlines trend for internationalisation of authentic premium beers - This is part of an important pattern where the global beer groups are internationalizing premium beers with authentic national or regional origin. One can anticipate many more deals like this one in the future. Read More
Constellation Brands more vulnerable after buying premium wine portfolio from Fortune Brands - CB is arguably banking far too much on premium wine, making it vulnerable later to write–downs and other consequences. Read More
Carlsberg & Heineken must raise bid for Scottish & Newcastle to avoid endless arbitration over Baltika - Such arbitration proceedings are notoriously lengthy and costly; this means that if the two sides don’t come to a valuation agreement ‘out of court’, then the whole deal will drag on for years. Read More
Initial Carlsberg & Heineken bid for Scottish & Newcastle is too low and spuriously justified - The legal wrangles could continue indefinitely; hopefully, it can all be solved by money instead, through a more acceptable i.e. higher valuation. Read More
Russian Standard vodka emerging as a quality acquisition candidate in super-premium vodka - Established in the late 90s, Russian Standard has the ambitions and arguably the genuine potential to become a global vodka leader, with a strong authenticity story and professional international roll-out. Read More
Carlsberg’s new warchest too big for anything except Scottish & Newcastle bid - New warchest will be far too big to signal only a bolt-on acquisition strategy; too big also for the acquisition of Royal Unibrew; only a bid for Scottish & Newcastle would soak up so much cash. Read More
Royal Unibrew continues to ripen as an acquisition platform after latest purchase in Latvia - Smaller deals are and will be aplenty in brewing in CEE, as larger brewers re-shuffle and expand their portfolio and coverage, and as smaller players exit or retreat to core markets. Read More
Palm’s sale of Polish brewer points to its vulnerability as acquisition candidate - This deal shows that smaller bolt-on acquisitions of local brands have value for the brewing majors. Also the Palm brand gets noticed as a specialty Belgium beer with internationalisation potential if acquired. Read More
Campari acquisition of X-Rated vodka underlines its creative valuation approach for early –stage assets - It seems that Campari’s acquisition pattern is much more about value for money, than that of the other (public) groups like Constellation Brands. Read More
Heineken’s acquisition of Krusevice confirms its bolt-on acquisition approach - Krusovice's 700k hectolitre will only add another 3% to Heineken’s 5% market share. The group will either continue this piecemeal brand acquisition pattern, or will exit the Czech market at some point. Read More
Diageo acts like a venture fund by taking minority stake in spirits start-up - The deal confirms yet again the trend for the global beverage players, whether alcohol or soft, to invest in bright new-generation products even at a very early stage in their development. Read More
Bacardi has the strongest rationale and means to win privatisation of Absolut vodka - Fortune Brands is the buyer of reference for Absolut. Bacardi is the best fit, since their vodka offering is rather limited to Grey Goose, which is in the super-premium segment. Read More
Royal Unibrew emerging as attractive regional beer platform after purchase in Poland - Given the importance of national and regional brands in the beer business, Unibrew's M&A strategy is legitimate. It also allows the group to tee itself up as a regional platform for one of the global groups. Read More
Sapporo a test case in whether hedge funds can stimulate M&A activity - Question raised whether hedge funds can stimulate M&A activity by forcing the hand of genuine strategic buyers, and even if they will muscle into private equity territory by actually going through with ‘public to priva Read More
Czech Budweiser may be opening up after Anheuser-Busch distribution deal - This agreement might herald the end of the legendary dispute over Budweiser rights globally; in turn that might finally open the door to Budvar’s privatisation. Read More
Acquisition of Svedka by Constellation Brands signals high valuations for new generation vodka brands - We think this deal might prove to be a failure, because Svedka doesn’t have true authenticity, its growth has been very spikey and its young target consumers may condemn it to being only a fad. Read More
CEDC emerging as major spirits group in CEE after strategic distribution deal with Campari - Anticipate ever –bolder acquisition leaps by CEDC, in key central and eastern European geographies, in the next year or two. Read More
Whyte & Mackay suggests that premium spirits are a good category for private equity - Patience, and an investment plan for the branded side of W&M, may be rewarded, as the current owners have attracted a major player from the key emerging market of India, as their exit route. Read More
United Breweries makes breakthrough into premium spirits brands with Whyte & Mackay purchase - It’s very significant the UB agreed to pay a premium for the White & Mackay brand, after all. That would set a precedent for UB to make more acquisitions of premium western spirits brands in future. Read More
Campari acquisition of Cabo Wabo points to authentic ultra-premium as prime segment for M&A in spirits - Tequila's prime territory for M&A activity, as a ‘premiumised’ category. In terms of authenticity, Cabo Wabo scores very highly. This is the type of spirits deal that should be sought out and executed now. Read More
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